澳大利亚前总理霍克在APEC高峰论坛上的演讲
The dangers in this situation are clearly reflected in the tensions we can see in the waters
of the Western Pacific today. Of course no one in either Beijing or Washington wants to see these
tensions escalate, let alone flare into conflict. Wise heads on each side can see how disastrous
that would be – including for each of their economies. But rivalry like this can easily take on a life
of its own, and history shows all too clearly how tensions can lead to confrontation and conflict even
when neither side really seeks it.
So while escalating strategic rivalry is not inevitable, it is a very serious risk, and one that carries
immense perils for Asia’s future. The question therefore is how can this risk be minimised?
I think the first step is to realise that the regional strategic order must change, and change substantially,
to recognise and accommodate the radically new and different distribution of wealth and power that
we see in Asia today, and that will undoubtedly change even further over coming decades.
We must never lose sight of what is happening here. We are living through by far the biggest
shift in global economic weight since the industrial revolution two centuries ago. We have only to
recall how profoundly that event transformed the international order to see how foolish it would be to
imagine that the pattern of relations which has kept Asia so stable for the past few decades can
continue to do so in the decades to come. We must expect big changes, and do whatever we can
to manage them toward a stable, sustainable outcome.
Second, we must accept that any sustainable new order in Asia must accord China a substantially
greater position of influence and leadership than it has exercised hitherto. That is not only because the
Chinese people deeply and very understandably want and expect that to happen. It is also because
China has so much to offer the region in a leadership role. This country’s remarkable achievements of
the past thirty years, and
the way those achievements have been reached in such close cooperation with its neighbours, are the
clearest evidence of how much it has to offer the region as a leader over the decades ahead.
Third, we must also understand that any stable and successful new order in Asia must include a
substantial leadership role for the United States.
No one can doubt America’s absolutely pivotal role in creating and upholding the regional order in which
all of us have been able to flourish so well.
And equally I believe that no one should doubt the importance of America remaining actively engaged
in Asian strategic affairs in futre. Quite simply, I do not believe that we can build a stable new order in Asia
without a strong US role. But equally, that role cannot be the same as the role it has played for so long until now.
Fourth, it follows from what I have said already that no stable order in Asia can be based on the sole
leadership of one or the other of these great powers. Asia must not, and need not, choose between US
primacy or Chinese primacy. On the contrary it must construct a new order in which both of them play major,
and essentially equal, leadership roles. The great question, therefore, is how such an order can be
conceived and created.
It will not be easy, and many people glibly assert that it will in fact be impossible. I think they are wrong,
for two simple reasons. One is that the consequences of failure are so serious. Asia today faces the
choice between a future of stability, peace and prosperity on the one hand, or a future of escalating
rivalry and conflict – including let us neve forget, the risk of nuclear conflict – on the other. To choose
the first of those futures and avoid the second it is essential to create a regional order in which the US
and China share power as equals.
The second reason I think the pessimists are wrong is that I think they underestimate the capacity
of great countries to change and adapt to new circumstances. It is only impossible to create a new
order in Asia if one believes that Americans and Chinese cannot recognise their own best interests
and work effectively to promote them. Of course that will take real leadership and courageous
statesmanship on both sides of the Pacific.
I believe that when people understand the risks and see the opportunities that leadership will be forthcoming.
Finally, I believe that the challenge of creating a new order in Asia is not one for the US and China alone.
All of us in this region have an immense stake in this process, and all of us have a corresponding
responsibility to play our part in helping to guide it in a positive direction.
That is a responsibility we can approach with some confidence, but we must approach it together.
Twenty five years ago we faced the immense challenge of building an open, integrated economic order in Asia,
and we succeeded beyond our most optimistic dreams by working together. Today we face a new challenge,
which in the same spirit I believe we can meet equally well.